April 5, 2023
As Iran closes in on nuclear weapons, it’s time for the U.S. to
keep its promise
Dear Friend of Israel, Friend of FLAME:
Iran’s unrelenting, belligerent pursuit of nuclear weapons is
forcing the hand of the West to fulfill what they have always promised:
Prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Unfortunately, few of the West's current
heads of state show the determination and courage to live up to this
promise.
Despite all evidence to the contrary, some of the West’s
leaders—particularly those in the Biden Administration—believe
diplomacy will ultimately prevent the Islamic Republic from becoming a
nuclear power.
It’s no surprise, then, that since taking power in 2021, U.S.
President Joe Biden and European nations have sought to revive the failed
2016 agreement that was supposed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear
weapons, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Meanwhile, in Israel, the country that faces the most danger should Iran
acquire nuclear weapons, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains
steadfast, believing that only the credible threat of military force
—or the use of force itself—will prevent Iran from developing
nuclear arms.
Recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) noted that it found
uranium particles in Iran enriched to 83.7% purity, just shy of the 90%
purity needed to manufacture a nuclear weapon.
The window to act in advance against Iran’s nuclear ambitions is
quickly closing. The time to act seems at hand. But barring a fundamental
change in the West’s posture towards Iran—a change that
emphasizes an effective military deterrent rather than trying to
talk the mullahs out of acquiring nuclear weapons—Israel will be
forced to act on its own, without the West’s support.
Such an outcome would be a travesty—a failure equal to Neville
Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler, avoiding decisive action, rather
than confronting the greatest threat to world peace in a timely
manner.
Iran has often and clearly declared its intention to defeat the United
States and destroy Israel. It is on the brink of acquiring the nuclear
tools to do so. It’s time for a Plan B.
Surely, we’ve reached the point for the U.S., with its ally
Israel—and other Western nations the U.S. can muster—to put definitive military action on the table. If military threats fail to
dissuade Iran from its belligerence, the use of military force would be
called for. The U.S. and its allies undoubtedly have the capability to
destroy Iran’s nuclear assets without needing a ground war.
The larger question is whether Western leadership has the integrity to meet
their commitments.
There’s no doubt that a nuclear-armed Iran poses an existential threat to many nations in the Middle East, and
increasingly in Europe.
In September last year, the Iranians paraded a missile with a
1400-kilometer range, which would make it capable of reaching any
target in the Middle East, as well as parts of Europe. Some of Iran’s
missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
The US and various Western powers—including Israel—have
recognized this threat and vowed solemnly to oppose and in fact to
prevent it. In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September
last year, US President Joe Biden promised, “We will not allow Iran
to acquire a nuclear weapon.”
Meanwhile, Iran is now on the brink of a nuclear breakout—within
striking distance of nuclear weapons. In fact, in late 2022, the IAEA
reported that the Islamic Republic already had enough enriched uranium for
one nuclear bomb. Fast forward to today, and Iran’s uranium stockpile
is large enough to implement at least five nuclear weapons within
3-4 weeks.
This threat is only mitigated by the fact that although Iran can produce
nuclear weapons in a matter of days or weeks, it still cannot weaponize them. The Iranians have yet to manufacture a
nuclear warhead for a missile. Experts believe that this will take one to
two years. Nevertheless, the clock is ticking.
While the Biden administration and other Western powers prefer a diplomatic
solution, time has proven that diplomacy is unlikely to deter Iran
from its nuclear arms ambitions.
While JCPOA was meant to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, the
agreement is fundamentally flawed. It does not prevent Iran from developing
nuclear-capable missiles, rather it simply puts a pause on the nuclear
program so that it could be quickly restarted by 2031—just eight
years from now—without any restrictions.
Nor does the agreement allow for surprise inspections, and it included
sanctions relief amounting to billions of dollars that Iran’s
mullahs could spend on terrorist activities. For these reasons, the Trump
Administration chose to abandon the agreement in 2018.
Unfortunately, since coming to power in 2021, President Biden has sought to
revive the deal. In the meantime, Iran has stepped up its nuclear program
to the point where, by December last year, the country had a uranium
stockpile 18 times larger than that allowed by the JCPOA.
With every passing day, the threat of a nuclear Iran becomes greater, and
the possibility of ameliorating it becomes more difficult and more
dangerous. Diplomacy has failed.
We are about to reach a crossover point at which the danger of
waiting to act is greater than the danger of acting. Israel will no doubt
approach this point sooner than any other actors.
However, it doesn’t make sense for the U.S. and other Western powers
to allow Israel to take on this threat singlehandedly—even though it
may feel forced to do so. Israel acting alone dramatically raises the
stakes and raises the danger . . . of failure, of a counterattack by Iran,
of a Middle East conflagration.
I urge you in conversations with friends, colleagues and family—and
in letters to the editor—to explain emphatically that the only sane
solution is for the U.S.—and its Western allies—to threaten
Iran with severe military repercussions if the mullahs continue
their pursuit of nuclear arms. That time is here.
I hope you'll also take a minute, while you have this material front and
center, to forward this message to friends, visit FLAME's lively
Facebook page
and review the P.S. immediately below. It describes FLAME's new hasbarah campaign—“Demand Justice for Jewish
Students”—which exposes rising attacks on Jewish college
students’ identity and how these acts of antisemitism can be
defeated.
Best regards,
James Sinkinson, Publisher
Facts and Logic About the Middle East (FLAME)
P.S. |
You’ve surely seen headlines describing increasing attacks on
Jewish students—in the classroom and in the public square—by
radical anti-Zionist students, as well as faculty members. So far,
university administrators have failed to prevent this kind of antisemitism
on campus. At the heart of this discrimination, Israel’s enemies
outrageously claim that Zionism is not part of being Jewish. No
wonder more and more Jewish students are hiding their Jewish identities on
campus. I think you’ll agree that we supporters of Israel need to
speak out. FLAME’s new hasbarah---explanatory message—
“Demand Justice for Jewish Students”
—tells how recent law suits based on Title VI anti-discrimination
laws are putting pressure on college administrators to protect Jewish
students from such attacks. I hope you'll review this convincing,
fact-based editorial, which FLAME intends to publish in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post,New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Houston Chronicle, Star Tribune, Los Angeles Times and Newsmax. This piece will also be
sent to all members of Congress, Vice President Harris and President Biden.
If you agree that this kind of public relations effort on Israel's behalf
is critical, I urge you to
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