| Some 415 days after Hezbollah launched a war against Israel in solidarity with Hamas following its October 7 massacre, the U.S., France, Israel and Lebanon last week announced a ceasefire. While the Biden Administration surely sees this ceasefire as a crowning achievement—the President’s swan song before he exits the White House in less than two months—it is almost certainly bound to fail.
Above all, Hezbollah has indicated no desire for peace with Israel—to the contrary, the terror organization remains ideologically as committed as ever to destroying the Jewish state. Thus, every indication is that Hezbollah seeks to return to battle—maintaining its presence in southern Lebanon and attempting to rearm. Indeed, Hezbollah forces have already broken the new agreement, prompting harsh Israeli military response.
What’s more, this ceasefire is nearly identical to the previous ceasefire agreed to in 2006, which Hezbollah broke when it decided to join Hamas’s attack on Israel last year and force 70,000 Israeli residents from their homes. Likewise, the current ceasefire relies on the same failed enforcement mechanisms as the 2006 ceasefire.
The UN resolution back in 2006 prohibited the return of Hezbollah to southern Lebanon or in any way rearming the region. Neither the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), nor the Lebanese government, nor the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were able to prevent Hezbollah’s return or rearming then—and there’s no indication they have the power to resist Hezbollah now.
Furthermore, the primary sponsors of the ceasefire, the U.S. and France, also seem unwilling to challenge Hezbollah. Instead, they squander their political credibility condemning Israel for “violating” the ceasefire, when Israel is actually is trying to stop Hezbollah’s continued violations.
In fact, this latest ceasefire is little more than an effort by Team Biden to salvage their lackluster foreign policy legacy. However, all the parties understand that no ceasefire without a credible threat of force—which the U.S. is unlikely to supply—will succeed in bringing peace to Israel’s northern border. It is no coincidence that the ceasefire is expected to last only a scant 60 days, roughly coinciding with Biden’s escape from the scene as president.
Finally, there is little enthusiasm for the ceasefire in Israel. Israeli leaders rightly assume that Hezbollah will not abide by the agreement and only agreed to it under immense pressure from the Biden Administration, including Biden’s threat to Israel of continued restriction of U.S. weapon shipments. Given Israel’s success in soundly, but not thoroughly debilitating Hezbollah’s military might, there’s little appetite for allowing the terror group ever to resurface.
Hezbollah will not abide by the ceasefire. According to U.S. intelligence, the terrorist group has already started to regroup and rearm. Indeed, Israel has already had to take action to enforce the ceasefire, since no one else will. Last week, for example, the IDF struck several Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including dozens of rocket launchers, after the terrorist group fired mortars into northern Israel. In addition, the Israeli air force intercepted a plane from Iran suspected of carrying arms for Hezbollah.
None of this should surprise anyone, as Hezbollah and other Islamist terrorist groups don’t view ceasefires as a prelude to peace, but as a strategic opportunity to strengthen themselves until they become strong enough to rain terror on their enemies once again. Hamas similarly broke its last ceasefire with Israel by launching the October 7th massacre.
Those responsible for enforcing the ceasefire cannot and will not enforce it. Neither UNIFIL nor the Lebanese state enforced the last ceasefire and they won’t enforce this one. UNIFIL stood idly by as Hezbollah placed their terrorist infrastructure within sight of the peacekeeping force’s posts. In some cases, Hezbollah bribed UNIFIL personnel to use their outposts and security cameras to observe Israel’s military movements.
The Lebanese state didn’t perform any better. In fact, since 2018, the UN Secretary-General reported the LAF’s collusion with Hezbollah as an excuse for UNIFIL’s ineffectiveness. Indeed, the LAF is heavily infiltrated by officers and soldiers with links to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah also has a strong presence in municipal councils, banks, the airport, the government, and parliament, sometimes to the extent that it and the Lebanese state are indistinguishable. Besides, even if Lebanon wanted to enforce the ceasefire, it likely could not. Its government barely functions and has lacked a president now for two years. The country’s finances and economy are also in dire shape.
The ceasefire’s sponsors—France and the U.S.—turn a blind eye to Hezbollah violations. If they cared, they wouldn’t condemn Israel for enforcing the agreement. Both the U.S. and France, for example, have expressed their displeasure at Israel’s continued use of surveillance drones over Lebanon. Yet, there is nothing in the ceasefire that prohibits the use of surveillance drones.
Moreover, Israel has an understanding with the U.S. government in the form of a “side-letter” that permits 1) the continued use of air surveillance over Lebanon so long as aircraft don’t break the sound barrier, and 2) the free use of force by the IDF against security threats in southern Lebanon.
Israel views the ceasefire as a tactical pause. Its leaders only acquiesced to the agreement because of pressure from the Biden Administration, which has been withholding weapons shipments from Israel. Indeed, Prime Minister Netanyahu mentioned weapons shortages as one of the reasons his government agreed to the ceasefire. Israel also needs the U.S. to veto any upcoming anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council.
In short, Israel’s government seems simply to be waiting for President Biden to leave office, expecting a freer hand to act against Hezbollah and Israel’s other enemies once Trump assumes the Presidency—hence the 60-day length agreed to in the ceasefire.
The current ceasefire is simply a rehash of the failed 2006 ceasefire agreement. Instead of bringing peace to Israel’s northern border, Hezbollah simply used the previous pact as cover to build an immense terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Its ultimate goal was apparently to launch an October 7th-style attack on Israel. As the famous aphorism goes, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again . . . and expecting different results.”
Please make the point when speaking with family, friends, colleagues—or in letters to the editor—that the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is just a last-ditch effort on the part of Team Biden to add a touch of luster to their abysmal foreign policy record. All evidence indicates it will fail—just as Biden’s other attempts to negotiate peace in the Middle East. But it will also give Israel the opportunity to finish terminating Hezbollah’s military threat.
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Best regards,
Jason Shvili, Contributing Editor
Facts and Logic About the Middle East (FLAME)
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