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Facts and Logic About
the Middle East
P.O. Box 590359
San Francisco, CA 94159
(415) 356-7801


May 12, 2015

Does Anyone Trust Iran besides President Obama? Congress Must Kill the Iran Deal.

Dear Friend of FLAME:

Following the publication of last week's FLAME Hotline---which discussed the fact that Iran is United States public enemy #1---one of our readers wrote, accusing us and those who oppose President Obama's Iran nuclear deal of being "right-wing Republicans."

I emphasized to the writer that FLAME is strictly non-partisan and that our tiny staff is equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. The point is, you don't have to be a Republican to oppose the President's Iran Deal. Indeed, in a blow to the White House, the Senate last week voted 98-1 to demand the right to approve any lifting of legislative Iran sanctions.

But it isn't just a majority of Americans who distrust Iran---a whopping 68% according to a recent poll---but our Middle East allies as well. Of course Israel has long made known its horror at the Iran Deal.

In addition, just this week four Arab states, in a direct snub to the White House, announced that their heads of state would not be attending President Obama's upcoming Gulf summit. Apparently signaling their displeasure over the Iran Deal, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates will just be sending lower-level diplomats. Only Kuwait and Qatar will be sending heads of state.

While the Iran Deal has not been finalized and we don't wish the President ill will, what we know so far from the State Department fact sheet is devastating enough. Even if Iran accepted every term negotiated by Secretary of State Kerry---and it looks doubtful that they will---it would be a disastrous agreement.

We can only hope that Congress will maintain its fortitude once the final deal is made public at the end of June. Presuming no miraculous improvements in the terms, that's when we must swing into action to ensure that our elected representatives disapprove the agreement.

In the meantime, I think you'll benefit immensely from this week's FLAME Hotline featured article by two veteran analysts: Harold Rhode, a 28-year Secretary of Defense Middle Eastern affairs analyst, and Joseph Raskas, an Israeli Defense Forces veteran and consultant to the Friends of Israel Initiative. They see the weak Iran Deal as part of a larger abdication of American leadership in the Middle East.

I'm sure you'll find this brief, but incisive analysis (below) useful when you discuss the Iran Deal with friends, family and colleagues. It's critical we change the discussion away from what superficial changes are needed in the deal to why Congress needs to reject this deal.

Thanks for your support of FLAME and of Israel!

Best regards,

Jim Sinkinson
Vice President, Facts and Logic About the Middle East (FLAME)


Good news: The U.S. Senate has asserted its right to approve or disapprove any reduction of sanctions on Iran---effectively a mandate on any Iran nuclear deal---and we expect passage of this bill in the House. Now it's time to affirm to Congress and the White House that we believe the current "Iran Deal" is unacceptable, and that sanctions should stay in place until a better deal can be forged. That's why FLAME has developed a new paid editorial message that we are now publishing nationwide in media, including college newspapers, reaching 10 million key influencers, plus all U.S. congressional representatives and the President and Vice President. I invite you to preview this message, called "Mr. President, Stop the Iran Deal Now." I hope you'll review this hasbarah message and pass it on to all your contacts who will benefit from it. If you agree that FLAME's bold brand of public relations on Israel's behalf is critical, I urge you to help us run this message, so Americans will realize that the current "Iran Deal" fails to fulfill Mr. Obama's 2012 promise to stop Iran's nuclear program. In fact this deal paves the way for our worst enemy---and that of Israel---to continue developing nuclear weapons technology. Please consider giving a donation now, as you're able---with $500, $250, $100, or even $18. (Remember, your donation to FLAME is tax deductible.) To contribute online, just go to donate now. Today more than ever we need your help to ensure that Israel gets the support it needs---from the U.S. Congress, from President Obama, and from the American people.

Iran Is Lying, and We Know It
If the White House doesn't pull the plug on negotiations, Congress must.

by Harold Rhode & Joseph Raskas, National Review, May 7, 2015

The most frustrating part for a rational observer of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran is this: There is little doubt that Iran is lying, and will continue to lie, but that doesn't seem to matter to those negotiating with it.

Rather than cause Tehran to capitulate by ratcheting up the pressure, the White House and its negotiating partners first eased the sanctions that had been compelling Tehran to negotiate and then effectively tabled the military option. Since then, they have made a seemingly unending catalog of tangible and irreversible concessions, to which the Iranians have responded with increased hostility. Yet, still the talks go on.

Last month, in just a week's time, the P5+1 reportedly relented on three key demands: that Iran must come clean on its past nuclear-weapons work, that it must dismantle its plutonium-production plant, and that it must cease its uranium-enrichment activities.

Not only has the White House folded on these important criteria, it is also employing an array of experts to cook up more schemes to keep the talks alive. The White House has signaled added flexibility by moving to offer sanctions relief immediately after a deal is signed, rather than waiting until Iran meets its obligations.

Given that Iran has for decades refused to come into compliance with its international obligations, has sought to destabilize the Middle East, and has waged a deadly war against America and its allies when pressure was in place, it stands to reason that when that pressure is removed Iran will ramp up its illicit nuclear activity, tighten its grip on the Middle East, and intensify its attacks against Western targets.

Negotiating does not mean accepting the opponent's position as your own, particularly when it comes to serious matters of statecraft. Negotiating does not mean accepting the opponent's position as your own, particularly when it comes to serious matters of statecraft. In the lead-up to Operation Desert Storm, President George H. W. Bush gave a careful lesson in diplomacy when, on January 9, 1991, he dispatched his secretary of state, James Baker, to meet with Saddam Hussein's foreign minister, Tariq Aziz.

Baker handed Aziz a letter, in which Bush bluntly offered Hussein two options: Either he must comply with a dozen U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding the peaceful withdrawal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait, or those troops would be expelled by force.

As Baker's assistant secretary of state, John Kelly, later reported, "the tension was visible in Tariq Aziz." Although he was a tremendously accomplished diplomat, "his hands trembled slightly as he held the letter. I remember seeing a small trough of perspiration running down his temple."

It was precisely because President Bush defended the integrity of the United States and of the U.N. Security Council that he was able to present a united domestic and international front and restore the balance of power and global order.

In contrast to Bush's ironclad dictates to Saddam, the secret correspondence from Obama to Khomeini constitutes a humiliating concession. Rather than confront Iranian aggression across the region, President Obama rewarded the leading terrorist sponsor by raising the specter of effective cooperation with Tehran.

It is commendable that the Obama White House is applying creative thinking to a complex problem that has bedeviled many successive administrations. And it is understandable that it has sought to bridge gaps with operational adjustments that the Iranian negotiators could spin politically in order to satisfy their leadership's domestic constraints.

But it is unacceptable that the Iranians have been allowed to outmaneuver the West simply by wielding against us our willingness to negotiate. The White House has become captive to its own desire to achieve a deal, and that has caused Iran to make even greater demands.

Horrified by what they perceive as deepening acquiescence to Iran's demands, America's traditional Arab allies - Muslim and otherwise - are taking matters into their own hands, most notably in Yemen, where a coalition of Sunni states is countering Iranian efforts to reinforce the rebels.

The Iranian patrol boat's seizing of a cargo ship that was under U.S. protection last week in the Persian Gulf is merely the latest in a steady stream of indicators that American concessions have only bolstered the determination of the clerical regime in Tehran to pursue anti-American policies.

When President Obama originally presented his plan to the American public, he said its purpose was to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, not to contain it. Yet now the world stands on the brink of a deal that would, at best, legitimize an industrial-sized Iranian nuclear-weapons program and, at worst, spark a nuclear-arms race across the Middle East.

For members of Congress weighing the issue, it is time to honestly confront this question: Has the White House truly done everything possible to stop Iranian aggression, or has it given Iran - and other enemies - reason to underestimate American resolve?

If the latter is the case, Congress must do its utmost to kill the deal before an already corrosive Middle East, and other conflict-stricken areas around the world, descend further into chaos.

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